For most schools, safety planning doesn’t fail because leaders don’t care. It fails because of a single, deeply human assumption:��

“That kind of thing won’t happen here.”��

This belief rarely appears in writing. It doesn’t sit in emergency plans or risk registers. But it quietly shapes decisions about what gets prioritised, funded, rehearsed, or postponed.��

And it is one of the most dangerous assumptions a school can make.��

Recent Reality in Australian Schools��

Across Australia in 2025, schools have faced a steady rise in serious safety incidents, including lockdowns triggered by violence, threats, and behavioural escalations. These events are no longer isolated to particular regions or school types; they reflect a consistent national pattern where situations escalate rapidly beyond routine supervision.��

Craig Harwood — a former Victoria Police Special Operations Group tactical team leader who spent a decade responding to high-risk incidents — notes that what appears sudden to schools is often a familiar progression:��

“The base threat starts off with low-level violence between students — and then it escalates from there.”��

This escalation pathway helps explain why schools are finding themselves in crisis situations that feel abrupt, but are rarely unpredictable.��

Why “It Won’t Happen Here” is Dangerous��

This assumption creates a cognitive blind spot:��

It underestimates internal threats��

Most school safety planning tends to focus on rare, headline-grabbing events like active shooters — scenarios driven more by consequence than probability. Yet the day-to-day reality for Australian schools is frequent behavioural escalations, violence between students, and other real-time disruptions that are far more likely to occur.��

It ignores evolving social dynamics��

Online threats, social media-fuelled intimidation, and the viral spread of aggressive behaviour make isolated events ripple into broader fears or actual incidents.��

“Social media has exacerbated this issue — threats can be made anonymously, regularly, and without consequence, and then that flows into the real world.” – Craig Harwood��

It breeds complacency at the worst time��

Plans that are rarely tested or are based on the expectation that “nothing serious will happen here” weaken individual readiness and organisational response.��

“When you don’t have anything happen for a while, people tend to think the problem doesn’t really exist.”��

When school communities believe they are inherently safe or that serious threats are somebody else’s problem, they fail to invest in the structures that keep people safe when the unthinkable becomes thinkable.��

Preparedness isn’t warning; it’s realistic��

Preparedness is often misunderstood as pessimism. In fact, it’s pragmatic realism. Fire drills don’t suggest a fire is imminent; they ensure effective response if one occurs. The same logic must apply to human-driven incidents.��

Harwood is explicit on this point:��

“It’s not being alarmist — it’s being practical.”��

Australian schools today must plan for what is most likely to happen — behavioural escalations, unauthorised entries, peer-to-peer violence — and also be ready for what is most consequential — serious assaults, organised threats, or large-scale emergencies.��

“You have to look at it as a hierarchy of risk — from low-level incidents right through to the highest-consequence events.”��

Turning Assumption into Action��

Schools nationwide can defuse this dangerous assumption through these principles:��

1. Understand the real risk profile of your community. Use local data, incident logs, and behaviour patterns to map likely scenarios.��
2. Ensure plans are lived, not laminated. Role clarity, regular briefings, and real-world drills reinforce readiness.��
3. Leadership under stress must be practised. Calm, informed decision making is the most valuable resource in a crisis.��
4. Information flow is a priority. Real-time situational awareness helps avoid panic and directs action efficiently.��

The assumption that “it won’t happen here” isn’t neutral — it amplifies risk. Australian schools have seen how quickly ordinary days can turn into crisis moments.��

As Harwood observes:��

“Because it hasn’t happened to you, you think it won’t — until it does.”��

The most responsible leaders replace that assumption with a better question:��

“If something were to happen here today, would we be ready?”��

Preparedness isn’t about assuming the worst — it’s about reinforcing what’s already in place. The challenge is ensuring those plans remain practical, current, and effective under real-world pressure.If you’d like a fresh perspective on your school’s emergency management planning, or to explore how ���˶��� can support clear communication and confident response during incidents, we welcome you to contact us to request a demo.

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Craig Harwood is a former anti-terrorism police officer and tactical team leader with the Victoria Police Special Operations Group. For over a decade, he trained and operated internationally with the FBI Hostage Rescue Team, Germany’s GSG 9, LAPD SWAT, New York ESU, and San Diego SED. He later founded SECURECorp and Secure Training, delivering emergency management and security training across schools and universities.��

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